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On 21 October the Supreme Court refused to let the Trump administration enforce its ban on hormone therapy and other gender-affirming care in federal prisons while a lawsuit proceeds — a rare loss, with Thomas and Alito dissenting and no reasons given.
Cook Political Report now projects a net Democratic gain of 10 to 20 House seats on 3 November, with the Senate a pure toss-up and a possible two-to-six-seat pickup. The fight in the final fortnight is not whether Democrats can win the House — it is how deep into Republican territory they can reach.
Polls, forecasters and betting markets all point the same way for 3 November: Democrats favoured for the House, the Senate on a knife edge. Even a strong Democratic night leaves the presidential veto untouched.
Congressional maps are supposed to last a decade. This year, voters in nine states will cast midterm ballots in districts drawn mid-decade — the product of a fourteen-month fight that began in Texas, was answered in California, and was reshaped twice by the Supreme Court.
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