At Least One Third of Students Behind at School, Study of 6,000 New Zealand Pupils Shows — and the Gap Widens

At least one third of students behind at school — more than a full school year behind, in reading, writing and mathematics — is the headline finding of the latest Curriculum Insights and Progress Study from the University of Otago, released this week (School News). The averages, though, are not collapsing. They are flat. What the study actually shows is a system holding its average while the distance between the front and the back of the class grows. Information verified through 10 November 2026.

The Curriculum Insights and Progress Study 2025 results, in brief

The study ran foundation assessments with more than 6,000 students from 160 schools, in mathematics, reading and writing, at Years 3, 6 and 8, using nationally representative samples from English-medium state and state-integrated schools (School News). Average scale scores in 2025 were similar to previous years, with small improvements in places: maths scores rose slightly, with a small but statistically significant increase at Year 3 and gradual upward movement at Year 6; reading averages stayed stable between 2023 and 2025; writing scores increased slightly at Year 6, significantly so (School News).

Timing gives this release its weight. The report is, as School News puts it, “the last data set before the full implementation of the new curriculum” (School News). Whatever the refreshed curriculum does next will be measured against this baseline. The study itself was established in 2023 to monitor Year 3, 6 and 8 achievement against the refreshed New Zealand Curriculum, and is run by the University of Otago with the New Zealand Council for Educational Research (Education Counts).

One third of students behind at school in reading — more in maths and writing

The pattern repeats in every subject, and it steepens with age.

In mathematics, about a quarter of Year 3 students (24 percent) and Year 8 students (26 percent) were achieving at or beyond expectations, with just over a third of Year 6 students (36 percent) meeting the threshold (School News). Reading looks better on the surface: 53 percent of Year 3 and 52 percent of Year 6 students met or exceeded expectations — but by Year 8 that share falls to 45 percent (School News). Writing is the weakest of the three: 41 percent at or above expectations in Year 3, 38 percent in Year 6, and 28 percent in Year 8, with 72 percent of Year 8 students behind by at least part of a year and 56 percent more than a full year behind (School News).

One comparison from the study’s first cycle is worth keeping in mind. The 2023 report found a similar structure — roughly half of students meeting reading expectations, fewer than a quarter meeting maths expectations, and the group more than a year behind growing across primary schooling (Education Counts). That report also cautioned that the refreshed maths curriculum had raised expectations of what students should be able to do, so a low “meeting expectations” share partly reflects a higher bar, not only lower performance (Education Counts). The 2025 figures should be read with the same care: they measure distance from a demanding new benchmark.

Year 8 students more than one year behind maths: the starkest story in the study

Follow the “more than one year behind” line and the shape of the problem changes. In maths, 38 percent of Year 3 students were already more than a year behind; by Year 6 it is 52 percent, and by Year 8, 64 percent (School News). In reading, a third of students were more than a year behind at Years 3 and 6, rising to 44 percent by Year 8 (School News). Children are progressing — the study has never claimed otherwise — but many are progressing more slowly than the curriculum advances. Each year, the gap compounds.

The burden is not shared evenly. Māori and Pacific students’ average scores sat below those of their non-Māori and Pacific peers in all three subjects, and schools with higher Equity Index values — schools serving communities facing greater socioeconomic barriers — performed worse than lower-EQI schools, with the report calling the writing differences “large and statistically significant” (School News). At Year 8 in maths, the average Māori student’s score was 752 against 813 for non-Māori students (School News). Gender cuts differently by subject: girls scored lower on average in maths, though boys’ scores spread more widely, while girls scored consistently higher in writing and higher in reading at Years 3 and 8 (School News).

Other recent New Zealand data point in a somewhat kinder direction, and the tension is real. Reporting on Progressive Achievement Test data released in October, the Parents’ Alliance noted that Curriculum Insights had found the share of Year 6 students at or above expectations rising between 2024 and 2025 — by five points in writing and six in maths — while also warning that students in the highest-barrier schools remain “more than a year’s learning behind” their peers and that recent maths gains have not narrowed that gap (Parents’ Alliance). Both things fit the same picture: movement at the average, persistence at the tail.

A New Zealand new curriculum baseline assessment, not a verdict

Analysis: read this study as a starting line, not a scoreboard. It is the final measurement taken before the new curriculum is fully in place, drawn from a representative sample rather than the much larger but non-representative pool of schools using standard tests (School News; Education Counts). The next cycles will show whether the refreshed curriculum lifts the students currently a year or more behind — or whether the share left behind keeps climbing from Year 3 to Year 8 regardless of what the syllabus says. The baseline is now on record. Nobody gets to argue later that it wasn’t measured.

Photo: Alison Wood, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY)

Sources

1. https://www.schoolnews.co.nz/2026/11/at-least-one-third-of-students-are-behind-at-school-study-shows/
2. https://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/publications/series/curriculum-insights-and-progress-study/foundation/curriculum-insights-and-progress-study-foundational-area-mathematics-and-reading-results-2023
3. https://www.parentsalliance.nz/heres-to-our-teachers-strong-maths-gains-and-signs-of-improvement-in-reading