Sunrise on the Reaping Box Office Tracking Splits: $60 Million, or $100 Million?

Sunrise on the Reaping box office tracking has produced two very different stories in the same week. Tickets for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping went on sale on 28 October, ahead of a 20 November opening, and the conservative forecasters and the presale watchers are not describing the same film (ComicBasics, reporting Deadline and Boxoffice Pro figures). Information verified through 1 November 2026.

On one side: Deadline tracking of more than $60 million domestically, inside Boxoffice Pro’s $55–65 million long-range range. On the other: trackers at Global Box Office and Empire City Box Office, who watched the first hours of presales and said a $100 million-plus opening looked possible — one called it close to a lock (ComicBasics).

Both can’t be right. The gap itself is the story of this month’s box office.

A November 2026 box office preview with no giant in it

November usually needs a giant. Last year Wicked: For Good opened to $147 million and carried the month to $766 million across four frames; this year there is nothing on the calendar at that size, and Sunrise on the Reaping is the biggest release of the month, tracking at $60–70 million in Box Office Watch’s preview (Box Office Watch).

That preview expects November to finish down on last year, propped up — if it is propped up — by mid-sized openers stacking together: The Cat in the Hat, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ebenezer and the Focker sequel. It also notes the wider cushion: 2026 is already at $7.9 billion domestically, running 20 per cent ahead of 2025, with Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three arriving in December (Box Office Watch).

So the month doesn’t need a hero. It just needs its one tentpole not to wobble.

Sunrise on the Reaping presales versus Sunrise on the Reaping box office tracking

Presales reward devotion, not breadth. The fans who buy in the first hours are the franchise’s core, and their rush can flatter a forecast. ComicBasics makes exactly that caution: early presales are driven by the most devoted fans and can overstate the final result, and a public prediction contest’s median guess sits near $68 million — much closer to the cautious camp (ComicBasics).

Still, the underlying demand signals are stronger than last time. Suzanne Collins’ novel sold 1.5 million copies worldwide in its first week, including 1.2 million in the US — double the first-week pace of The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes — and the franchise has grossed $3.3 billion overall. The trailer drew 109 million views in its first 24 hours, a Lionsgate record, according to Box Office Watch.

The film also has the calendar to itself. Early-access premium screenings run 18 November, the wide opening is 20 November, and the following Thanksgiving frame brings Disney’s Hexed, tracking at $35–45 million, plus the comedy Focker-In-Law (ComicBasics).

The Hunger Games opening weekend forecast in franchise context

Context cuts both ways. Every film in the original quartet opened above $100 million — $152.5 million, $158.1 million, $121.9 million and $102.7 million. Songbirds & Snakes opened to $44.6 million in 2023 and finished at $166.4 million domestically. A $60 million-plus debut beats the prequel and still lands as the franchise’s second-lowest opening (ComicBasics).

Money raises the bar. The budget is reported between $170 million and $200 million, with The Numbers tracking it at $185 million — far above its predecessor’s roughly $100 million. Lionsgate releases the film itself in North America and the UK, with partners elsewhere, so overseas performance matters as much as the domestic headline (ComicBasics).

Boxoffice Pro’s own reasoning leans on familiarity. It expects word of mouth from Songbirds & Snakes — which legged from a modest opening to $166.3 million — to help the follow-up, notes that many characters from the original films return, and points out that Jennifer Lawrence and Josh Hutcherson are reported to reprise their roles in the epilogue. It also warns that this year’s Thanksgiving competition is tougher than the frame Songbirds enjoyed in 2023, when Disney’s Wish opened weakly and left the top spot open (Boxoffice Pro).

Analysis: the honest read is that both camps are measuring something real. Tracking models see a softened franchise; presales see a fandom that showed up early and angry to be counted. Which one wins will be decided by the casual audience in the second week — the viewers no tracker can sample in October.

Photo: Sdkb, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Sources

1. https://www.comicbasics.com/the-hunger-games-sunrise-on-the-reaping-is-on-track-for-a-big-opening-weekend-and-some-trackers-say-it-could-go-much-higher/
2. https://boxofficewatch.com/analysis/november-2026-preview
3. https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-the-hunger-games-sunrise-on-the-reaping/