Who Will Control Congress After the 2026 Midterms? America Votes on a Knife Edge

It is Tuesday 3 November 2026, and the question who will control Congress after the 2026 midterms is now in the hands of voters rather than forecasters. Americans are deciding all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats and governorships in 36 states, in an election that will set the balance of power in Washington for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term (AsiaToday). No results were available as voting began. The first polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time in parts of Indiana and Kentucky (AsiaToday).

Information verified through 3 November 2026.

The maths behind who will control Congress after the 2026 midterms

Republicans go into the day holding both chambers, narrowly. In the House they lead 218–214, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with them; in the Senate they hold 53 seats to 47 (Reuters). Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to take control — in the Senate because a 50–50 tie would be broken by the Republican vice president (AsiaToday).

History is not on the president’s side. Since 1946 the president’s party has lost an average of about 27 House seats in a midterm (Mappr). Reuters points to 2010 and 2018: Republicans gained 63 House seats in 2010 under Barack Obama, and Democrats gained a net 40 in 2018, during Trump’s first term (Reuters).

The polls explain why Democrats start the day as favourites without starting it safe. Polling averages put Democrats 8.3 points ahead on the generic congressional ballot, according to RealClearPolling, while Reuters/Ipsos put Trump’s approval at 32 percent, near a record low, with rising consumer prices among the pressures on Republicans (AsiaToday; Reuters). Forecasts agree on direction and argue about margin. Decision Desk HQ’s model gave Democrats an 80 percent chance in the House, projecting 238 seats, and a 60 percent chance in the Senate; prediction markets priced Democratic control higher still, and the Cook Political Report projected Democratic gains of 12 to 22 House seats and two to six Senate seats (AsiaToday). A probability is not a result; traders’ prices are wagers, not votes.

The 2026 midterm elections Senate toss-up races that decide everything

Cook rated seven Senate races as toss-ups, six of them seats held by Republicans and one held by a Democrat (AsiaToday). The Republican-held contests are in Texas, where James Talarico faces Ken Paxton; Maine, where Troy Jackson challenges Susan Collins; Alaska, where Mary Peltola challenges Dan Sullivan; Ohio, where Sherrod Brown faces Jon Husted; Iowa, where Josh Turek faces Ashley Hinson; and Kansas, where Adam Hamilton challenges Roger Marshall. Michigan is the Democratic-held toss-up (AsiaToday).

Polling averages on election morning showed several of those races within a few points — a near tie in Iowa, narrow Democratic leads in Alaska and Texas (AsiaToday). Democrats must hold all 13 of their seats on the ballot and flip four of the 22 Republican-held ones; Republicans are defending more ground, which cuts both ways (Mappr). Two of the 35 seats are special elections, in Florida and Ohio, filling seats vacated by Marco Rubio and JD Vance (Mappr).

If Democrats take the House, their leader Hakeem Jeffries is expected to become speaker — the first Black American to hold the office — with plans to open investigations and push bills on healthcare, groceries, housing and energy costs. A Republican hold keeps the gavel with Mike Johnson’s party (Reuters).

The most expensive midterm election in US history

Whatever happens tonight, the money record has already fallen. OpenSecrets estimates total spending by candidates and outside groups at $11.9 billion, which would make this the most expensive election in US history (Reuters). NPR put spending at $11.5 billion with days still to go, and noted that California and Texas had each seen more than $1 billion in advertising (NPR via WAMC).

One donor dwarfs the field. Elon Musk had spent about $366 million supporting Republicans as of three weeks before election day, according to campaign finance records reported by Reuters (Reuters); NPR put his giving above $300 million, half of it for the Texas Senate race alone (NPR via WAMC). Republican strategist Mike DuHaime, a former Republican National Committee political director, told NPR the volume eventually starts to cancel itself out — though it matters where one side clearly outspends the other (NPR via WAMC).

A 2026 midterms early voting record, and the warnings attached to it

More than 57 million people had already cast ballots by Monday, according to the University of Florida Election Lab — well above the 46 million early votes in the 2022 midterms (Reuters). Democrats appear more enthusiastic this year, and more of them have voted early, the Election Lab found; there are also signs that Latino voters who moved towards Trump in 2024 may be returning to Democrats over the economy and immigration enforcement (Reuters).

NPR’s Domenico Montanaro warned that Republicans vote overwhelmingly in person on election day, and that in states reporting early votes by party, the 44-to-31 Democratic split was close to the split in 2022 — a year Democrats lost House seats (NPR via WAMC). Trump himself spent the final days campaigning in Ohio, Texas, Kansas and South Carolina, states Republicans had not expected to be competitive, because the election may come down to whether his voters turn out (NPR via WAMC).

Analysis: split outcomes are the quiet expectation. The House forecasts lean Democratic with unusual consistency; the Senate is seven races and a coin flip. Either chamber flipping changes Washington — one chamber can block legislation and launch investigations, even if it cannot pass its own programme past a veto. The new Congress takes office on 3 January 2027, and close races, late mail ballots and ranked-choice counts in Alaska and Maine could leave control unconfirmed for days (AsiaToday). Tonight’s projections are not certification.

Photo: Noclip, via Wikimedia Commons (public domain)

Sources

1. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-you-need-know-about-2026-us-midterm-elections-2026-11-02/
2. https://asiatoday.id/read/us-votes-in-2026-midterms-as-control-of-congress-hangs-in-balance
3. https://www.mappr.co/us-midterm-elections-2026/
4. https://www.wamc.org/2026-10-28/with-so-many-data-points-this-is-what-to-pay-attention-to-before-election-day